Breckenridge & Summit CO Real Estate Trends and Statistics

I™ve just sold a property in Breckenridge. Come and visit my site to see other properties in that area. If you are interested in looking for or selling your home, please Contact Me.

I™ve just sold a property in Breckenridge. Come and visit my site to see other properties in that area. If you are interested in looking for or selling your home, please Contact Me.

November Newsletter

 Thanks again to all those who noticed I was gone!   My husband and I did have a great vacation.   We started off in Amsterdam, where my husband has spent many nights as a pilot, took a ferry to the lakes district in England (think the White Mountains of New Hampshire), visited relatives in Wales, and finished off taking a ferry to Ireland.   What struck us most was that those places we liked the most were the ones least impacted by people.   Upon my return I sent the following letter out to folks on my newsletter!

As an uncertain year is coming to a close it can be easy for investors of all kinds to vacillate between despair and euphoria.   In the mountains however, perspective is a little easier to  acheive.   We had a beautiful fall and, as always, Mother Nature is bringing on the snow.    I know many of you very well after spending hours driving around showing properties, or sitting at your table discussing your property.   Others I™ve only met once, and kept in touch by email.   Regardless, we all share a love of the mountains that leads us to extraordinary efforts to be here.    Earlier this year my husband retired from Delta Airlines.   We recently vacationed in Europe and although the architecture and history were amazing, we found that the places we most enjoyed most were those that were least impacted by people.  After several weeks of traveling we ended up at the art museum in Dublin trying to escape the noise and traffic.   Sitting in the courtyard after the museum had closed, my husband and I had a long discussion about our future and what we most wanted to do.  The trouble with being a real estate agent is that there is no good time to quit. You always have clients you are working with who you care about.   However, after much deliberation, I have decided to retire from real estate effective November 30, 2010.    I value the relationships we have developed and I hope that I can still help you pursue your real estate goals by matching you with another broker who can fulfill your needs as I™ve tried to do.   Most of my clients share my analytical approach to real estate and I have given extensive consideration to finding an agent I can suggest who understands the numbers that drive the market and can offer valuable advice, not just a sales pitch.    I have to say, the response was overwhelming.   I was deeply touched by the responses to my retirement.   When I became a realtor I was determined not to be the kind of shady character everybody  wants to avoid.   My financial security didn’t depend on making sales at  all costs, so I was  free to be completely honest, which obviously struck a chord.   Besides the valuable friendships I developed which makes it hard to quit, my Internet presence finally reached critical mass with a regular stream of new clients turning up looking for real information, not the same old sales pitch.

It seemed a shame to give up all that hard earned exposure, but both my husband and I have decided to travel more, ski more, and enjoy the life we have here in Breckenridge.    We have decided however to keep up my blog, my website, and  my Zillow.com presence.    Not only do these  sites generate a steady stream of interested investors, but  both my husband and I enjoy following the local  real estate market.   By continuing to collect and analyze data we will be able to provide buyers, sellers, and other real estate agents an objective source of information.

Instead of  showing and listing properties, I have a  few  agents I know and respect that I  can match with potential clients.   These few agents (and there are only a few!) put the client’s interests first, which although a regulatory requirement, is something that is not always followed.   They also have an extensive knowledge of the market including history, statistics, and trends.   Real knowledge, not just  a slick sales job is what best serves the client.   In the interest of full disclosure I will receive referral fees from these agents, but they will be the same for all of them to avoid any conflict of interest.   My sole criteria will be which agent I believe will serve you best.

I will continue to put out a  monthly newsletter, which I will post on my website and blog.   Although, I have changed my brokers license to an  Independent Broker, and will no longer be working directly with Re/Max, I would like to extend my thanks to the Angels, owners of the local offices, and all the great people there I have worked with.

Please feel to contact me with any questions.   I always enjoy chatting about real estate and as a licensed agent I can still offer all the services I did before.    But I must remind you of the old Summit County saying, “there are no friends on a powder day”.   If the ski report shows more than 6″, please leave a message.  

As always you can reach me at the following: JoanInBreckenridgeRealEstate.com, JoanInBreck@comcast.net, 970-333-4203 (cell)            

OCTOBER  2010  

Thanks to everyone who noticed my absence on my blog.   For the first time in two years I took a real vacation for most of September, traveling with my recently retired husband to Europe.   Thanks to to Lisa at Re/Max in Breckenridge who covered my two closings while I was gone.  

With 43 condo resales in Q3-10, the sales numbers are about the same as last year.   Inventories continue to bounce along at around 400 units.   Considering the slow sales numbers, this is actually a good thing, as it at least shows a balance between units entering the market, and sales.   That some of those withdrawals result from sellers giving up or not even trying to sell does not alter that fact.

If you look at the price per square foot trend, there has been a slowing in the rate of decline over the last three quarters, settling at $358/SF.  This puts us back to the price levels of late 2005.   I have been successful with those sellers that were able to accept this reality, and have lost some listings that have not.   The question for buyers and sellers is whether or not this is the bottom.   Like the stock market, timing an exact bottom is more luck than skill.   Our prices may well drop further before turning around.  As a seller you need to balance out your expectation of appreciation against your carrying costs and your motivation to sell.  As a buyer you have to decide if you would rather miss out on a year or two of enjoying a condo in Breckenridge to perhaps get a lower price, or would you rather buy now, enjoy your new condo and see the market drop some before recovering?   Not all things are measured in dollars.

Joan Miller is a broker at RE/MAX Properties of the Summit in Breckenridge.   For the numbers behind this analysis, her newsletters or recent articles, visit her on-line at JoanInBreckenridgeRealEstate.com, call her at 970-333-4203, or e-mail her at mailto:joaninbreck@comcast.net.

BRECKENRIDGE HOMES NEWSLETTER AUGUST 2010  

I have been quite concerned for some time that without a pickup in sales numbers and the resultant drop in inventory levels, prices would remain under pressure.   With only 33 single family home sales in Q2-10 for Breckenridge, there have actually been fewer sales than in Q2-09, with a year over year drop in median price of 26%, from $374/sf to $274/sf.   Even more worrying is that the moving average continues down.  

Looking at the year over year change in sales, we have again moved into negative territory for the change in the number of sales.   Updating those numbers through today, there have been 74 home sales in Breckenridge year to date, down from 92 at this point last year, a 20% drop.     All this has occurred in spite of a 26% drop in prices.

Although it may be premature to forecast a œdouble dip recession in Breckenridge home prices, inventories and sales are clearly moving in the wrong direction.   In Q2-10 home inventories reached 434, while months inventory based on a one year look back climbed to 27.  

As you can imagine, quoting numbers like these have not made me popular with some sellers or their agents.   Although a hard pill to swallow, I have managed to sell three of my last five listings by being honest and documenting the numbers.   I ended up telling the other two owners that they would not be able to get their minimum price right now and should consider withdrawing the listing and renting, which is what they have done.   I have kept one of my own properties listed, and will continue to cut the price until I generate interest, but given the current market that may require a price rollback to early 2000 levels before anything happens.   Reality is what it is, not what we may wish it to be.

The most crucial question now is whether we will continue to see deflation in real estate assets, and if so for how long.   As a property owner, I hope Q2-09 will prove to be the bottom of our market, with the current deterioration only a statistical blip.   Only time will tell.

Joan Miller is a broker at RE/MAX Properties of the Summit in Breckenridge.   For the numbers behind this analysis, her newsletters or recent articles, visit her on-line at JoanInBreckenridgeRealEstate.com, call her at 970-333-4203, or e-mail her at mailto:joaninbreck@comcast.net.

Check out this new Single-family property that I just posted on my Web site. It is in Breckenridge. This Single-family property has 5 bedrooms and 4 baths.

I™ve just sold a Single-family property at 893 Range Rd. in Breckenridge. Come and visit my site to see other properties in that area. If you are interested in looking for or selling your home, please Contact Me.

I’ve opened a couple new tabs on my webpage www.JoanInBreckenridgeRealEstate.com to expand my coverage of Summit County Colorado.   The data is courtesy of my office, Re/Max Properties of the Summit.   I’ve included a sample below- drop by and take a look at the rest.   For more info you can reach me at JoanInBreck@comcast.net, or at 970-333-4203.

JULY 2010  

By the end of the second quarter of 2010 we saw condo sales in Breckenridge finally get a bit of a tailwind, with sales of 41 existing units, a 41% increase from a year earlier, and a 70% increase over the prior quarter.   Given our typical seasonal pattern I would not be surprised to see the year end with an additional 120 sales in the second half even with a sluggish economy.   That would put us at around 200 sales for 2010, which sounds great until you compare it to 2007 when we had 403 resales of existing condos.  

Q2-10 did show an interesting bump up in price per square foot of $425, which after the dismally low (for sellers anyway) $366/sf last quarter certainly raises the question of whether or not we are seeing a bottom.  

The answer lies in a closer reading of the numbers.   In the chart you will see a trend line I have applied to the $/sf data, calculating a four period moving average.   This helps to smooth out distortions caused by the small data base, and the seasonal nature of our sales.   As you can see there was a clear peak in prices during Q2-08, with a distinct leveling off during the last two quarters.   As I have stated before, until I see sales numbers return to close to 100/quarter, the large inventory level will continue to pressure prices.   This summer will be critical in determining whether prices have fallen low enough to draw the required number of buyers into the market.   With credit availability improving and continued low interest rates, two crucial elements of a rebound are certainly in place.

For more information as well as current listings and prices please visit me at www.JoanInBreckenridgeRealEstate.com, e-mail me at JoanInBreck@comcast.net, or phone me at 970-333-4203.

Check out this new Town-Home property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at D24 43 Snowflake Dr. in Breckenridge. This Town-Home property has 2 bedrooms and 1 baths.